The Tarmogoyf Effect

Let me start this off by saying this is not financial advice. This is simply an explanation of how I buy cards and an article to explain some of the terms that I use. As someone who likes to buy expensive cardboard I have to be careful to not buy a card right before it tanks in value of I'm buying it to squirrel it away. What causes a cards value to tank like this? It happens when a cards depend falls below its supply, this is something I have nicknamed the Tarmogoyf effect. 

I call it the Tarmogoyf effect simply because this is one of the most famous cards that highlights supply and demand from both the Meta side of things and the supply side of things. Tarmogoyf was a card that saw wide play in the Meta of several formats which made is a sought after card. WotC then began printing it often starting in 2015. Between 2015 and 2021 it ending up seeing 5 full reprints, inclusion on the List and a premium reprint. It also saw less play at tournaments as well which means it's supply quickly went above the demand which caused the card to drop from a $200 to $25 card. 

So what do I do to help mitigate from getting Goyfed? First thing is stay away from cards that are sitting at a high value, haven't seen a reprint in a while, and very dependent on the meta. These cards are soft and their value could drop harshly on a reprint or loss of popularity. An example of this as of writing this is Snapcaster Mage. It's original Innistrad is sitting around $50 and while it does see play, it's being outshined by many cards. Snappy has also not seen a true reprint since December of 2018 with Ultimate Masters and in the last three and a half years, barring a 3 month Spike in 2021, it's been trending down. This is a perfect storm of a reprint causing a card to drop harshly in value. While it could go up if it becomes a part of a deck seeing play, I think it's to high of a right as it's supply seems pretty saturated and a reprint will likely cause it to drop sharply. 

So what cards do I look into buying, barring reserve list cards? I look for cards that are going to see play regardless of the meta. A safe bet is always lands, especially those that see play in a number of formats or lands that are considered staples, such as Shocklands, Fetchlands, or Fast Lands. Especially if you can pick them up right after a reprint when their price has dropped because the supply has been met, even if for a short while. Right now Modern Horizons 2 is widely available making the enemy fetches widely available which has brought their value down quite a bit, making them very affordable at $15-30, buying them now could pad my collections value quite a bit in the next couple of years as they rebound from the reprint.

Other than staple metaproof cards what are some other cards that I think are safe to buy? Premium versions of playable cards, especially those that see a lot of play in commander. Older original foils are also a safe bet for cards to retain their value. As an example I picked up a Urza Legacy foil Crop Rotation for $120. It made it to near $200 before is saw a foil reprint with Double Masters, and while the value of the UL foil did fall in the short term, it quickly rebounded. Old foil cards or original printings foils of cards always seem to retain a good amount of value, the OG Goyf, the normal sits at $60 while the foil is over $600.

Lastly the things I look to buy are premium versions of cards that are played, even if they are not in a ton of decks. Most recently I picked up a playset of foil Brazen Borrower Secret Lair. Mainly because it's a card I needed for a deck, but it is also a card that sees play in multiple formats, and lastly it's a card that will not see a reprint (maybe) in that particular version. I've also done this with Ultimate Masters Box Topper Vengevines. 

I hope you enjoyed the write up on how I go about buying cards for my collection. While I wouldn't say I'm hardcore into MTG investing, I also don't like buying cards that will lose money in the long term and will use cards  that have gained value to trade for cards that I need for decks.